A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."